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When will Covid surge in India decline? IISc-ISI model projects 3 scenarios

The latest projection by researchers at the Indian Institute of Science and the Indian Statistical Institute claims the present surge of India will begin to decline from February, though it will vary from state to state, and the present curve will be flattened by March-April. The peak might see over 8 lakh daily cases in India, the latest projection said. The latest projections take into account the rising Covid graph of India till January 10 and Omicron transmissibility rates in South Africa.

For this projection, the scientists have provided three scenarios: 100% susceptible population, 60% susceptible population and 30% susceptible population. In all three scenarios, the curve will be flattened by April. In case of 30% and 60% susceptibility, the surge will decline in February, in case of 100% susceptibility, it will take some more time, the graph shows.

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The latest projection of Covid surge by the IISc-ISC scientists.

Here are the main takeaways from the latest projections

1. India’s estimated hospital requirement can go beyond 4 lakh per day in the worst-case scenario i.e. if 100% population is susceptible to the virus now.

2. Considering 60% population susceptible, the hospital requirement can go a little above 3 lakh per day.

Is the third wave finally starting to ebb in Mumbai and Delhi?

ISI-IISC-Team provides new projections. More optimistic scenario than @IHME_UW,

They also have a model from INDSCI SIM for states of India (@MenonBioPhysics et al) — Giridhara R Babu (@epigiri) January 11, 2022

3. The requirement of ICU beds can go beyond 20,000 in the worst-case scenario. Otherwise, it will remain between 10,000 to 15,000.

Projection of hospital and ICU requirement in January, February

4. The wave will begin to decline in February and by March 1, the curve will start to flatten. In April 2022, the third wave will end in India. However, the exact timing will be different for different states

5. Giving statewise predictions, the model shows that Delhi at present is reporting over 20,000 cases. If Delhi has a 60% susceptible population, then daily cases will rise over 40,000. In case of 100% susceptibility, daily cases may rise above 60,000.

6. Puducherry, Lakshadweep, Punjab will see a delayed surge, the projection show, which means when cases in other states begin to decline, these states and UTs may see the surge.

7. Maharashtra in the worst-case scenario will report over 1.75 lakh cases per day. In a60% susceptible situation, the state will report over 1 lakh cases per day at the peak.

8. Karnataka in the worst-case scenario will report over 1.20 lakh daily cases, but in that case, the peak will come in February first week. In a 60% susceptible situation, Karnataka’s peak will see a little over 80,000 cases daily.

9. West Bengal may see between 30,000 and 40,000 daily cases considering 60% susceptible scenario. In the worst scenario, West Bengal will see over 50,000 daily cases.

10. Kerala’s daily cases could reach way above 1 lakh in a 100% susceptible situation. In the 60% susceptible situation, the daily cases could reach between 60,000 and 80,000.

India on Wednesday reported 1.94 lakhCovid cases, taking the daily positivity rate to 11.05%. Delhi health minister Satyendar Jain on Wednesday said the hospital admission rate has not risen in the past four-five days which is good news amid the third wave. “Fewer people are getting admitted to hospitals. It seems that the cases are going down. If they go down, then the restrictions will be reduced,” the minister said.

Mumbai mayor Kishori Pednekar said the numbers of Covid-19 cases and its fast-spreading variant Omircon were slowing coming down in the city and urged people to get vaccinated.


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